Jeb Bush announced his candidacy for president on June 16 and was immediately crowned the favorite of the establishment Republican leaders. The problem, according to the polls, is that Bush, the Republican Party favorite is slowly being rejected by the voters. Some of his downfall may be due to his own gaffes and low-key manner but many political poll experts believe the Trump candidacy is having a devastating effect on his numbers.
A few days after the his announcement NBC/WSJ came out with a national poll showing him with a comfortable lead. Bush was leading the Republican pack with 22 percent of the vote, Walker was second at 17 percent, Rubio third with 14 and Carson rounded out the top four at 11 percent. Donald Trump was in the number 11 spot with a whopping one percent. This poll can be taken as a starting point for the election. It clearly showed Bush the frontrunner and Trump was far back in the pack. Another part of that poll asked if people supported the candidate or not. Rubio had a slight lead in that poll 74 support, 15 no. Bush was a close second 75-22 and Trump was upside down at 32-66. Sixty-six percent could not support Trump at that time.
At the starting gate, according to the Wall Street Journal, he was pulling in big money from the main establishment donors. Wall Street Journal writers Beth Reinhard and Christopher S. Steward have identified several very influential donors who have committed to his super PAC. Their analysis shows that the establishment money was going mostly to the former Florida governor. The Wall Street Journal claims to have received the names of many of his donors through interviews and they say much of the big donations are going to his campaign.
Trump announced his candidacy on June 9 with his now famous speech which included his call for a wall to keep out the immigrants bringing drugs, crime and rapists. To the amazement of many, Trump began to slowly gain in the polls until he was leading going into the debate despite his highly criticized remarks. The first debate came and went with everyone assuming that Bush would begin to close the gap on Trump. NBC took a poll on Aug. 9 which showed Trump leading with 23 percent while the former favorite had dropped from 10 to seven. Fiorina, according to many pollsters, was the winner of the debate and increased from 2 to 6 percent. Jeb Bush, the Party favorite, continued to be rejected by the voters.
Then the real descent for the former governor began at the same time the numbers of non-political candidates Trump, Carson and Fiorina began to rise. Inquirer Politics writer Thomas Fitzgerald quotes Bush as saying he is the “joyful tortoise,” while Trump is the “manic hare.” As the tortoise in last place, he recently launched his first TV ads in New Hampshire where he once was ahead in the polls but now trails Trump by 9 and Ohio Governor John Kasich. American voters may be about to see the power of the purse in action. Will it be enough to bring back the voters who, at this time, are rejecting him?
The Real Clear Politics takes all the polls and averages them out. In that poll Trump leads with 27.8 percent, Carson is second at 13.5 percent and Bush is third at 9.3, which is 18.5 percent behind the leader. That poll is perhaps one of the most accurate on a national scale, according to many political analysts, and shows Jeb Bush, who remains the party favorite, continuing to be rejected by many of the voters. On the other hand, the election is just underway and this one promises explosive changes along the way.
By Lloyd Gardner
NBC News.com. Meet the Press: First Read Jeb Bush Leads the Pack
Wall Street Journal: Jeb Bush Drawing Big Bucks from GOP Establishment.
MSNBC: NBC Post Debate Poll
Philly.com: Bush Trailing in Polls Launches First TB in New Hampshire
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