Where Are the Hurricanes?

Hurricane
Courtesy of NASA (DVIDS PDM)

No one knows how to feel about it. Today is August 31st. Between July 3, 2022, and today, no named storms have been in the Atlantic. The Gulf Coast and the Eastern seaboard of the United States have remained calm during the normally most destructive hurricane season.

“It has been surprisingly and freakishly quiet in the Atlantic,” University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy said, pointing out that weak Tropical Storm Colin fizzled out on July 2, and there’s been nothing since.

Not since 1941 has there been a complete lack of tropical storms in the east for nearly two months. Expected storms have not materialized, but the NOAA says, ‘don’t get too comfortable.’

The conditions are there. Warm ocean water for fuel is present. Not a lot of wind shear that decapitates storms has occurred. La Nina, the natural cooling of the central Pacific that changes weather patterns worldwide and increases Atlantic storm activity remains in place.

The NOAA issued this warning:

Hurricane
Courtesy of US Air Force (DVIDS PDM)

“We’re just getting into the peak months of August through October for hurricane development, and we anticipate that more storms are on the way,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “NOAA stands ready to deliver timely and accurate forecasts and warnings to help communities prepare in advance of approaching storms.”

The most difficult job in the world has become a meteorologist. Climate change has made the prediction of big storms virtually impossible. A couple of months ago, I wrote an article informing the residents along the Gulf Coast about the predictions of NOAA scientists. They expected a number of severe storms during the hurricane season. Although these dangerous storms have yet to materialize, they warn residents in storm-prone areas to remain vigilant and prepared.

NOAA’s update to the 2022 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 3-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

The only advice I can offer is to trust science. If they are wrong, and that is doubtful, be safe, not sorry if you are a science denier. It is important to use your intellect and not your support of others who refuse the information offered by men and women who spend their lives studying the many areas of natural science. The safety of your family and friends is of far greater importance than politics.

Not a single man or woman has escaped the effects of climate change. Records have been set related to every weather condition possible. In many areas of our nation, changes in weather patterns are already causing a loss of entire crops necessary to feed our people. This winter is expected to bring freezing temperatures to the Midwest and East, which will cause power outages and conditions which prevent businesses from their normal hours of operation. Elderly Americans will be in great danger under these expected extreme conditions. This situation is expected to last longer and be more severe.

We must return to the middle of the 20th century when science was praised for advances in medicine that saved thousands, if not millions, of lives. They have no political agenda. Many of these esteemed men and women have spent their lives hoping to save the lives of others. It’s time for common sense to return to our nation.

Climate change is real and should not be a political issue.

By James Turnage, Novelist

Sources:

NOAA: NOAA still expects above-normal Atlantic hurricane season
AP News: Calm before storms? Oddly quiet Atlantic despite forecasts; by Seth Borenstein and Rebecca Santana

Featured and Top Image by NASA Courtesy of DVIDS – Public Domain License
Inset Image by US Air Force Master Sgt. Brian Lamar Courtesy of DVIDS – Public Domain License

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