Betting the NFL – Week 2

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Bettors in Week 2 have some hard games to pick from, but the same could be said of every week. Based on many sports books, Week 1 saw seven underdogs beat the spread, with one push and five dogs winning their games straight up. It is an illustration of what casual bettors should already know: winning money betting the NFL is hard. Even the successful professionals only win about 53-55 percent of their bets.

Betting the NFL is tough and Week 2 looks especially so. Taking a team’s first performance and applying it to this week is the challenge, but here is a look at some of the best matchups to consider. All point spreads are the current and opening lines from the Westgate sportsbook in Las Vegas.

The San Francisco 49ers are opening a new stadium and the Chicago Bears are facing the possibility of starting the season 0-2. These are two big factors to keep in mind in a game the oddsmakers opened at -6 points for Niners, and that now stands at -6 1/2. The Bears were blindsided by the underdog Buffalo Bills, allowing three Bills to rush for over 50 yards, and San Francisco will take advantage with a healthy running attack featuring the rock-steady Frank Gore and rising RB Carlos Hyde. The 49ers defense is still questionable, but kept Tony Romo and Dez Bryant in check last week and should do the same with Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, especially at home. Watch to see if the line moves to 7 but, as a 6 1/2 point favorite, the Niners are a good pick.

The Seattle Seahawks opened the NFL’s Week 2 as 4 1/2 point favorites over the San Diego Chargers and the line now stands at 6 points as bettors.expect the Seahawks to continue playing like the best team in the league. Except for one quarter against the Arizona Cardinals, the Chargers’ offensive looked terrible in Week 1 and now faces the Seahawks’ fast, confident, and experienced defenders. The Chargers are also going from Carson Palmer, Andre Ellington, and Michael Floyd to Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, and Percy Harvin, which means it is going to be a long night for the defense. Keep in mind how quickly the Seahawks moved from 4 1/2  to 6 point favorites, so it should come as no surprise if the line moves to 7 points or over. Still, the Seahawks are a strong pick at anything under 8 points.

Last week the Denver Broncos turned an easy victory into a needless nail-biter, and this week the Kansas City Chiefs are likely to face an angry team. The Broncos are favored by the week’s largest point spread, 12 1/2 points, and it might be justified the way the Chiefs looked in their opening game. The Chiefs have gone 2-8 since starting last season 9-0, have lost players on their defensive line, and are playing on the road and at altitude. On the plus side Kansas City’s Dwayne Bowe is off suspension and Andy Reid has promised to give Jaamal Charles a much bigger role, so the Chief’s offensive can be considered a bit of a wildcard, especially against a Broncos defense that looked shaky near the end of the Colts game. Nevertheless, the Broncos averaged 39.9 points a game last year and won by an average of 9.9 points playing a tough schedule. The Chiefs do not look up to handling an elite team, so the Broncos’ first blow out of the season is at hand. A 12 1/2 point cover is daunting, but the Broncos should easily blow the Chiefs out of the building by two touchdowns.

Up until Friday afternoon, sportsbooks around Las Vegas favored the visiting New England Patriots by 3 1/2 points over the Minnesota Vikings. Then came the news that Adrian Peterson had been indicted for child abuse and suspended by the NFL, and within a few hours the line had doubled to 7 points. A New England Patriot defense unsteady after being picked apart by the Dolphins’ Chad Henne and Knowshon Moreno can stack the line against Vikings backup Matt Astiata and make Matt Cassel beat them through the air. Cassel only threw three passes over ten yard in the game against the Rams and in Week 2 will need to elevate his performance. But without a running game, the Vikings will likely struggle against an angry Patriot team looking to avoid going 0-2. As of early Saturday morning, the betting line has moved to favor New England by 7 points. At that number they are worth picking but watch out, chances are the line will move even higher.

DISCLAIMER: The Guardian Liberty Voice and its writers can not be held responsible for any losses that may incur as a result of following the betting guides provided on this site. There are no dead certainties when it come to betting, so only risk money that you can comfortably afford to lose. This advice is for entertainment purposes only.

Commentary by Andrew Elfenbein

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