Russian-Ukraine War Escalates as Predicted

An escalation of war is on everyone’s minds. Russia has taken a few devastating blows in recent weeks. The damage was felt not only with infrastructure but with morale as well. Tension’s rapid rise in the area largely went unnoticed on the world stage as the media scrambled to definitively point fingers. The scope of political optics quickly fades in the face of legitimate threats, or at least that’s what President Putin was likely thinking when he unleashed 75 missiles. A predictable retaliation given how devastating the recent events were to their cause. The Crimea bridge was sabotaged less than 48 hours before last night’s assault on Ukraine. This infrastructure was a critical piece in Putin’s plan to assert control over the area, as well as a symbol for it being the serfdom of the motherland. 

Less than two weeks ago the Nord Stream 2 pipeline was targeted as well. While all signs point to the United States being responsible for its leaks, nobody has accepted any blame. Expecting Russia to take this blow sitting down, while being the 3rd largest oil producer was just absurd. With the bridge symbolizing Crimean annexation sabotaged, and their newest pipeline off-line, Putin is feeling immense pressure from his opposition. Putin was very direct in his remarks before when he expressed his conviction to react if anyone impedes his nation’s plans. If he had not reacted to these recent events with impunity, he would have faced scrutiny for appearing weak.

Assessing the Damage

Launching on the night of October 9th, 2022, 75 missiles entered Ukrainian territory. 41 missiles failed to meet their mark. Even so, the damage was devastating. Reports of damages range from all over Ukraine. 17 deaths confirmed so far. Among the hardest to be hit was the capital, Kyiv. Other cities struck were Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Kremenchuk, Lviv, Ternopil, and Zhytomyr. Sources indicate that Russia had been targeting critical infrastructure. Experts speculate that these strategic strikes were meant as a deterrent from further impudence of their plans. They also suspect it could have been to cripple the Ukrainian military’s mobilization capabilities. Perhaps both are correct. One thing we can speak on with certainty is the brutality and deliberate nature of President Zelenskyy’s office being the successful target of numerous missiles. 

What is next for the War?

Civilians cling to metro stations and parking garages while their leader virtue signals about his opposition’s acts of terrorism. As if sabotaging the Nord Stream 2 and the Crimean bridge weren’t of a similar caliber. Zelenskyy’s arrogant double standard offers little recourse toward peace talks. In fact, recent victories compelled the Ukrainian President to refuse peace talks offered by Putin. Officials claim that Putin feverishly sought council simply because Russia was losing ground. Russia is adamant about its desire to annex territories with people with ethnic roots in their country. Their refusal to budge on demands is another, more practical reason why Ukraine will not meet for peace talks. However, Russia has been forthright in expressing its desire for 3rd party mediation in such talks.
Considering the blatant projection of the morale highroad from Ukraine, they are more obstinate when it comes to negotiating peace talks. Putin has clearly stated throughout this conflict that continued interference from NATO, the United States, and the EU would result in further aggression. The recent attacks on Russian infrastructure were never going to be left unchecked. Assuming that both sides can be honest about their transgressions, we should hope this tit-for-tat dynamic ceases to be a pattern of escalation. The last thing humanity wants is a world war.

De-escalating War By Any Means

Most likely, Russia’s next move is to create an energy bottleneck for their European opposition which unfairly scrutinizes their position. Meeting further transgressions with greater hostility is Putin’s position. Even if both parties cannot agree on the premise of peace talks, showing up would be the best first step toward ending this potential war. Ukraine seeks additional arms and funding after the recent missile strike. Let’s hope they are working on de-escalation as well. Is it truly a sign of weakness to agree to engage in peace talks?

By Triston Bowman

Yahoo News: Russia says it is open to peace talks with Ukraine through mediators

Al Jazeera: Dozens of Russian missiles hit multiple Ukrainian cities

FX Street: Ukraine’s President Zelensky’s office was destroyed by a missile strike

Top and Featured Image Courtesy of Kai Schreiber‘s Flickr Page